Europe can only win the Repo Cup by turning the AI playbook onto SFTR to create market data that is transparent, detailed and trusted.

Europe vs USA is a rare sporting rivalry. Outside of golf, you’ll struggle to find these two giants going head-to-head.

This weekend’s Ryder Cup (and the Solheim Cup) reminded us why the matchup works so well – high stakes, pride, and drama that transcends the sport.

In finance, however, Europe and the US are compared all the time. Capital markets are a constant measuring stick – and I’ve seen first-hand that the EUR swaps market has even overtaken USD.

So what about repos? Time to tee it up.

Who has the largest repo market?

USA ½ – Europe ½

I expected an easy win for the USA on this one. I was wrong:

• USA: $12 Trn (source: FEDS note)
• Europe: €10.86 Trn ~$12 Trn (source: ICMA survey)

At first pass, it looks like Europe have an opportunity to win it here, with a long birdie putt on the 18th. Unfortunately, they race it 10 feet long and have a testy downhill putt on the way back.

Will they sink it? As with all of the best Ryder Cup match-ups, there are subtleties at play that only add to the pressure to seal the first points of the match:

• The USA estimate assumes that there is no off-shore uncleared bilateral repo outstanding. This is unlikely, particularly given that…
• …The European survey includes 25% of exposures denominated in USD.

I choose to measure the size of the entire repo market in Europe, not that denominated only in EUR. Given that the USA estimate probably includes some cleared activity with non-US entities, I think it is too close to call for now.

Europe make the putt to seal a half point each. At least the US are off to a better start than in the real thing….

Which repo market clears more?

USA ½ – Europe 1 ½

Assuming that we can all agree that Clearing is a good thing in this market (I know, there are edge cases), which market has the greatest adoption of clearing so far?

This match up really depends on which area of the market we are talking about.

In the US, overall clearing adoption for Primary Dealers has recently decreased to around 10% of total volumes:

But this really masks the growth in Clearing. For example, in bilateral repos, 45% of positions are now cleared by Primary Dealers:

In Europe, ICMA states that 21% of volumes were cleared. The SFTR data suggests that this was much higher, even when we adjust for double-counting of Cleared trades.

Our ActrixFT dashboard, which assumes that all cleared repo is double-counted in SFTR data, has clearing adoption at 32%:

In Europe, there are real hot spots for clearing adoption. Virtually all Italian government bonds (BTPs) are cleared, highlighted by clearing adoption on EEA venues:

Overall, I am calling this as an unlikely 3&2 victory for Europe.

Which repo market is growing more?

USA 1 ½ – Europe 1 ½

An easy win for the US here. The FED data has US banks repo exposures alone growing from $6.5Trn in 2022 to $10.1Trn in 2025.

The ICMA surveys show a total size in 2022 of €9.7Trn growing to €10.9Trn in 2025.

How much electronic trading is there in each market?

USA 2 – Europe 2

In the USA, both CME’s BrokerTec and LSEG’s Tradeweb publish regular volume reports for repo activity across their venues. Whilst TW don’t break-down volumes per currency, we can make some assumptions.

Overall, USD repos traded on-venue account for at least $1Trn ADV.

In reality, this is higher, but Bloomberg do not publish data for volumes executed on BOLT. In a blatant show of partisanship toward Europe, I am not giving the US a relief from that particular hazard (my blog, my rules).

European SFTR data suggests that ADVs for on-venue trading are of a similar size:

The match is halved, all be it with disappointing bogeys for each team down the 18th. The USA missed out on an easy point here, three putting the last green as a result of Bloomberg not publishing their volumes.

Who are the biggest players in each market?

USA 3 – Europe 2

In the US, we can see the notional outstanding of each Money Market Fund in cleared repos:

And we can see the notional outstanding of banks to repos from our ActrixFT BHC Dashboard:

We can also see the evolution of repo borrowing by hedge funds:

…and the growth in sponsored clearing:

In Europe, we do not have this level of transparency. So we do not know.

I am therefore calling this an easy 6&5 victory to the US. Europe has sooooo much potential here. We have a trade reporting mechanism set up. We could have the most transparent repo market in the world. But the public SFTR data is too aggregated and too high-level to compete with the US here.

Can Europe bridge the gap?

In this best-of-five, the US romps home to victory. So what can Europe do?

After the 2021 Whistling Straits disaster – when “decades of US dominance” was being touted – Europe took a hard look at itself, restructured, and course-corrected. The turnaround was powered by data: Edoardo Molinari’s meticulous stats have been credited with shaping pairings and strategy. But crucially, he had to gather that data himself.

We shouldn’t make the same mistake with SFTR.

US repo markets are already primed for AI-driven analysis because of their transparency. If Europe wants to compete, it must match that clarity – and use its data as intelligently as it does in golf.

Three easy wins for Europe:

• Publish CCP repo volumes daily, by currency, just as we already see in swaps.
• Add a currency breakdown to SFTR weekly reports.
• Strip out double-counting of cleared trades in SFTR data.

Do that, and Europe gives itself a fighting chance the next time the Repo Cup is played.

In Summary

• Market Size Stalemate: US and European repo markets both stand around $12 trillion, with differences in reporting assumptions making it too close to call.
• Clearing Advantage to Europe: Europe shows higher repo clearing adoption (32% vs. 10% USA), though pockets like US bilateral repos are catching up.
• Growth and Trading Access: US repo exposures are expanding faster, but electronic trading activity is evenly matched at around $1 trillion ADV on both sides.
• Transparency Gap: US data detail (MMFs, banks, hedge funds) far exceeds Europe’s aggregated SFTR reports – Europe must boost transparency to unlock AI-driven insights.