Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) are determined based on indicators covering size, complexity, interconnectedness, substitutability and cross-jurisdictional exposure. In this article I look at recent data on these indicators for U.S. Banks, to get some insight into upcoming G-SIB scores.

Background

Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) were first introduced in 2011 as a response to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Due to their system-wide importance, G-SIBs are subject to higher capital buffers, total loss-absorbing capacity standards, resolvability requirements and higher supervisory expectations.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) is responsible for publishing the annual list of G-SIBs, with the most recent version as of November 2024.

The G-SIB Dashboard shows the 29 G-SIB banks as well as their scores with input component indicators, all based on end-2023 risk data. Out of a main sample of 77 banks considered for inclusion, 12 are domiciled in the United States, of which 8 are G-SIBs.

BHC Dashboard

Last week, I updated the ActrixFT Dashboard to include FR Y-15 Systemic Risk Reports of U.S. Bank Holding Companies.

Thanks to a good design and GenAI, I was able to do this in a single working day, without relying on anyone else, which feels personally rewarding as it has been quite some time (two decades…!) since I took on suck tasks.

The Risk reports are published quarterly, so the ActrixFT Dashboard has the end 2024 indicators/risk measures data that will be used as input for the November 2025 G-SIB determination of U.S. Banks.

Let’s look at what this input component indicator data shows.

Size

Starting with the Size indicator, which has one component, Total Exposures.

Total Exposure is defined as the sum of:

• Derivatives exposures,
• Securities financing transactions exposures,
• Other on-balance exposures,
• Other off-balance exposures.

A large number indeed e.g. JPMorgan Chase Total Exposure was $4.6 trillion at end 2023.

Let’s chart this for the 12 US BHCs from Dec 2023 to Dec 2024.

• Total Exposure of $20.5 trillion as of Dec 23, increasing to $21.3 trillion as of Dec 24
• JPMorgan Chase increasing its share of these 12 banks total exposure from 22.4% to 22.9%
• Citigroup decreasing its share from 14.6% to 14.2%

Note that Total Exposure as of Dec 23 for all 77 Banks in the main sample was EUR 104 trillion, so these 12 US banks represent just under 19% of the total.

Given this significant share of the total, (which is a denominator in the determination of the score for the Size indicator), we can state with some confidence that it is likely JPMorgan Chase’s score will be higher and Citigroups lower, when the new G-SIB scores are published.

Interconnectedness

The Interconnectedness indicator has 3 component indicators, Intra-Financial System Assets, Intra-Financial System Liabilities and Securities Outstanding.

Let’s just chart one of these: Securities Outstanding.

• Securities Outstanding of $4.86 trillion as of Dec 23
• Increasing to $5.38 trillion as of Dec 24, an increase of 11%
• JPMorgan Chase increasing its share of these 12 banks from 23.6% to 24.6%
• Morgan Stanley increasing from 10% to 10.7%
• Citigroup decreasing its share from 14.6% to 14.2%
• Wells Fargo decreasing from 11.2% to 10.2%

The Total of Securities Outstanding as of Dec 23 for all 77 Banks in the main sample is EUR 17.4 trillion, so these 12 US banks represent 25% of the total.

Again JPMorgan Chase will likely have a higher score and Citigroup a lower one for this indicator in the November G-SIB publication.

Complexity

The Complexity indicator also has 3 component indicators, Notional Amount of OTC Derivatives, Trading and Available-for-Sale Securities and Level 3 Assets.

Let’s just chart one of these: Notional of OTC Derivatives ( we may as well go for one with very large numbers).

• Notional of OTC Derivatives of $218 trillion as of Dec 23
• Decreasing to $205 trillion as of Dec 24, a decrease of 6%
• Bank of America increasing its share of these 12 banks from 15.1% to 19.3%
• Morgan Stanley decreasing its share from 16.8% to 12%

The Total Notional of OTC Derivatives as of Dec 23 for all 77 Banks in the main sample is EUR 664 trillion, so these 12 US banks represent 30% of the total.

Substitutability

Another long word (16 chars!) but an important concept, Substitutability, with 5 component indicators of:

• payments activity,
• assets under custody,
• underwritten transactions in debt and equity markets,
• trading volume in fixed income,
• trading volume in equities..

A lot to pick from, lets go with payment activity, which given it is the activity over the whole year, is going to be a humongous number, surely even larger than the notional of OTC Derivatives.

• Total Payments Activity of $1.39 quadrillion as of Dec 23,
• Increasing to $1.46 quadrillion as of Dec 24, an increase of 6%
• JP Morgan Chase with a colossal 40.1% share as of Dec 23, increasing to 41.1% in Dec 24
• State Street increasing from 6.7% to 7.5%
• Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon and Citigroup, each with 0.6% decreases (12.3% to 11.6%, 17.5% to 16.9%, 14.5%, 13.9%)

No wonder JP Morgan Chase is the most Systematically Important Bank and the only institution in G-SIB Bucket 4, the highest category.

Cross-jurisdictional

This indicator has two components, cross-jurisdictional claims and liabilities.

• Liabilities of $7.8 trillion as of Dec 23, decreasing to $7.5 trillion as of Dec 24, a decrease of 4%
• JP Morgan Chase increasing its share of these 12 banks from 23.2% to 26.3%
• Citigroup decreasing its share from 28.6% to 26.2%

The Cross-jurisdictional liabilities as of Dec 23 for all 77 Banks in the main sample is EUR 21.3 trillion, so these 12 US banks represent 33% of the total.

That’s all I plan to cover today.

I have barely scratched the service as there is a lot more detail on the above indicators, as well as more recent 2025 data.

If you are interested in this, pease contact us for access to the BHC Dashboard.

In Summary

• G-SIB scores are published by the FSB, based on Systemic Risk Indicators
• The current list of 29 G-SIBs is based on end-2023 data
• End-2024 data offers early insight into upcoming G-SIB scores
• Possible increases or decreases, leading to changes in G-SIB buckets
• Our Dashboard now has this data for 12 U.S. Institutions

I plan to cover this data on a regular basis.

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